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The net positions are the difference between the long and short positions held by each group. A positive number shows how many more long contracts are
held by a particular group than short contracts. Conversely, a negative number shows how many more short contracts are held by a particular group than
long contracts. By plotting the net positions, you can see what groups are favoring what positions and how they are moving in and out of those positions.
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By plotting the Open Interest, you can see exactly how each group is increasing or decreasing their position in various groups. This is useful to see who
has need (the Commercials), who has information (the Non-Commercials), and who has nothing (the Small traders). You can see the Commercials stacking up
on a position anticipating need, and then closing out of the positions as their need is filled and their demand goes down. You can also watch as the
Non-Commercials start stacking up on a position as they watch weather, political, and economic news unfold.
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By plotting the COT Index, you can see when a group is taking an exceptional position in reference to other positions in history. Know if the positions
this year are stronger or weaker than they have been in the last four years, or any other time frame for that matter. See each group place their positions
when they believe that they have the edge or are protecting themselves.
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By plotting the COT Strength, you can see what percentage of a group is devoted to any particular side. This allows you to watch as an entire group
changes its focus all at once. It's also useful for seeing when one group is taking a very strong position while the other groups are taking weak ones.
If one group puts most of their resources in a particular direction but the other groups don't all agree on what direction to take, the first group
probably knows something. Pay attention!!!
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You can draw your own trendlines, Fibonacci retracements, Gann fans, linear regression lines, or any other line studies that your software allows. If
there's a strategy that you think may work, test it out.
Here, a Fibonacci retracement is plotted on the Non-Commercials COT Strength to show a high starting point, a low ending point, and where a 38%-50%
retracement target has occurred.
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Now you can apply all of the standard indicators to your COT data. The RSI, Stochastics, Moving Averages, ADX, and all other types of indicators can be
used giving you an analysis of your commodities data as never before.
As an example, here are shown the 180-period r-Squared indicators of the net positions of each group. Using this indicator, the trend of each group can
be evaluated to see which groups are slowly (or quickly) changing positions, or starting their own trend.
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Write Your Own Indicators |
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Not only can you apply the standard indicators that others use, you can write your own advanced indicators based on whatever rules that you wish to use.
More importantly, since this is "data" and not just a picture, you can fine-tune your indicators to ones that work for you.
Here is a chart with a custom indicator on it. A 70-period moving average has been subtracted from a 70-period linear regression to create a momentum
indicator. It has then been "normalized" for a +1 to -1 scale and then applied to each of the groups. In this particular chart, the new momentum indicator
shows that the Small-Traders have a tendency to slightly front-run (take their positions before) the Non-Commercials. This is very powerful stuff, and it
can only be done by using Commitments of Traders data.
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You can run your own system tests. Use the raw Commitments of Traders data, or use indicators that you have designed to perform advanced system testing.
See how profitable your strategies, or the strategies of others really are, and adjust the parameters to the most profitable model.
Here, a systems test has been performed on the gold chart, but the rules are from the new momentum indicator. When the momentum indicator of the small
traders starts to rise, a long position is taken, and when the momentum indicator of the small traders starts to fall, a short position is taken. The
data allows the user to find profitable combinations on their own.
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Explore a database of COT data to find which groups are holding which positions, or use the COT Strength in the exploration to see which commodities
have groups jumping into any particular positions. The possibilities are endless.
Here, an exploration was run on the COT Strength indicator to see which groups of which commodities are changing from a primarily long to a primarily
short position, or from a primarily short to a primarily long position (Above 50 shows more long than short, below 50 shows more short than long).
This allows the user to focus on only those commodities that have a group changing positions. Another interesting observation is that the Non-Commercial
traders (NON) have changed from a primarily long position to a primarily short position in Treasury Bonds, while at the same time moving to an entirely
opposite position in Treasury Notes (a related market). This is something that probably would have been overlooked had it not shown up in an exploration
report.
The convenience of using COT data allows a user to choose any kind of indicator or condition that they need to use for whatever results they require.
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Perform Your Own Analysis
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Make your own advanced experts that give you a full analysis on what any commodity is doing. Combine all the indicators from price analysis with anything
you come up with in the COT analysis for a super system that's unique and to your standards.
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Shatterfield provides Commitments of Traders (COT) data in both a MetaStock and an Excel-compatible file format that is directly chartable in many
software platforms, including:
- Excel
- MetaStock
- TradeStation (2000I and earlier, or 8.1 and later)
- Neuroshell Trader
- AmiBroker
- Fibonacci Trader
- TradeSim
- Other charting software that uses the MetaStock/CompuTrac file format.
The CFTC weekly Report is provided to you in a daily data format so you can view in daily, or compress to a weekly or monthly format so you can perform
system testing, apply indicators, and use nearly every other technical analysis tool available in your software.
The Data is updated on the release date from the CFTC, and is available for Internet downloading. Total weekly download and conversion times are
typically less than five minutes to update the entire database and use our no-hassle Data Downloader!
When you consider the value of having this much information to confirm and evaluate your trading decisions at such a low cost, can you really
afford not to be using it?…We didn't think so!
Shatterfield... Your Commitments of Traders Data Source
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