Windows

• Top: Price Data
• Middle: COT Net Positions
• Bottom: COT Group Open Interest

Note: “Synthetic” COT data is not real for the chart it is being applied to, but is created using the actual CFTC COT information. It is an accurate and usable representation of COT behavior for products that don’t have a specific COT contract.

Note 2: The EuroYen has actual COT data available for it, but since it is so poorly traded as a future, the information is almost unusable. The Synthetic is more accurate than the actual in this case.

This chart covers about 2 years (longer-term chart). The left half of the chart shows nothing of importance. That’s actually the point. No extremes, no unusual behavior, nothing. And so the chart has a generally sideways effect.

The right half is more interesting. We notice that the Non-Commercials seem to be consistently long, while the Commercials seem to be consistently short. Towards the middle of 2006, we see that they start to actually separate at a greater rate, and to a further extreme than before. But notice that the Non-Commercial Open Interest is doing even more. They’ve been at generally the same level the whole time, but for the second half of 2006 they have been adding on drastically to their long positions. Much more than we see in the past. At this point, it makes for a very continuous up trend that is maintained for half a year.